Lifting of evacuation orders
On March 31 and April 1, 2017, evacuation orders were lifted from “evacuation order cancellation preparation zones” and “restricted residence zones” in Kawamata Town (Yamakiya District), Tomioka Town, Namie Town, and Iitate Village. The evacuation orders had applied to about 81,000 residents of eleven municipalities that had been evacuated shortly after the accident, and about 70% of the areas were lifted from the orders. “Designated reconstruction bases” were created in “areas where returning is difficult” and decontamination efforts are under way.
However, the lifting of evacuation orders does not necessarily mean that evacuees are returning. In reality, young people are hesitating to return, and a growing number of households consist of just one or two elderly persons.
Table 1. Evacuee return status in former evacuation zones (Jan – Feb 2019)
Source: Prepared from data released by municipalities
| Evacuation order lifted | Population (A) | Actual residents (B) | Ratio (B/A) | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futaba | Sep 2015 | 6,969 | 3,641 | 52% | as of 31-Jan-2019 |
| Katsurao | Jun 2016 | 1,415 | 357 | 25% | as of 1-Feb-2019 |
| Minamisoma (Former evacuation zones) | Jul 2016 | 8,708 | 3,613 | 41% | as of 31-Jan-2019 |
| Namie (excluding difficult to return areas) | Mar 2017 | 14,909 | 896 | 6% | as of 31-Jan-2019, pop. as of Mar 2018 |
| Iitate | Mar 2017 | 5,685 | 1,003 | 18% | as of 1-Feb-2019 |
| Kawamata (Yamakiya district) | Mar 2017 | 858 | 334 | 39% | as of 1-Feb-2019 |
| Tomioka (excluding difficult to return areas) | Apr 2017 | 9,396 | 835 | 9% | as of 1-Jan-2019, pop. as of Mar 2018 |
This is what reconstruction looks like?
Before the government lifted evacuation orders, the Reconstruction Agency and local government surveys asked evacuees from evacuation areas about their intentions to return home. Responses differed depending on the municipality, but it was clear that many evacuees did not intend to return.
In Tomioka, evacuation orders were cancelled on April 1, 2017. Results of one government survey released in November 2018 showed 5.2% replying “I am already living in Tomioka,” 9.9% replying “I want to return,” and 48.1% replying “I have decided not to return.”1 The latter response was 1.3 percentage points up from a previous survey. The majority not returning were in their thirties, and the reason for 60.4% of those not returning was “because we already have already established our lives elsewhere.”
Table 2. Former residents’ intention to return (Tomioka)
Note: Percentages in parentheses are from previous survey (Aug 2017). Source: Briefing on Public Opinion Survey (Tomioka), 30-Nov-2018.
| I am already living in Tomioka | 5.2% (2.9%) |
| I want to return (including future aspirations) | 9.9% (11.1%) |
| I want to return, but am not able to | 18.4% (20.2%) |
| I still cannot decide | 16.8% (17.7%) |
| I have decided not to return | 48.1% (46.8%) |
Nearly two years after the evacuation order was lifted, the occupancy rate in Tomioka was just 9% in February 2019, and this included new people who moved here, so the actual return rate was less than that. Elderly people live in scattered locations, and the rest are workers and personnel connected with TEPCO and related companies. Vacant houses are being demolished. The municipality has put in place a full system of welfare, nursing care, medical services, shopping malls, crime prevention systems, fire prevention systems, bus services, and mobility support such as demand taxis, etc.
The townspeople have mixed feelings. “Tomioka today is not an environment where children can live, given the radiation effects. But one day I want to return to Tomioka. It is full of memories for me,” said one mother. One couple said, “We want to protect what our ancestors created. We want to return.” However, sons are not returning to carry on the family traditions. Many have decided to settle where they evacuated and start on a new path. One former resident said, “Even if I return home, I cannot farm. So I’m leasing my rice paddies to install solar panels. The landscape has changed dramatically.” 2 “My decision to return was the first time since the disaster that I was able to make my own decision. That gives me satisfaction…although in my neighborhood, one house after another is being demolished,” said one 90-year-old man.3
The government has three criteria for lifting evacuation orders: (1) certainty that the annual cumulative dose will be less than 20 millisieverts, (2) infrastructure for living has been restored, and (3) adequate consultation among the prefecture, municipalities, and residents. Regarding the first criterion there has been much criticism that this level is too high, and regarding the third, the government did not ask residents for their opinion regarding lifting evacuation orders, and went ahead despite much opposition.4
It is also questionable whether such a policy to have evacuees return was realistic. It would only be fair to assess the current situation, reflect the opinions of the residents, and redesign the reconstruction policy from a long-term perspective.
- Survey by Reconstruction Agency, Fukushima Prefecture, and Tomioka. Survey targeted head of household (6,648), survey period Aug 20 to Sep 3, 2018. Responses received from 2,992 households (44.3%). Details (in Japanese): http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/topics/main-cat1/sub-cat1- 4/ikoucyousa/181130_ikouchousa_tomioka.pdf
- From interview February 2017 at Committee 1 of the Citizens’ Commission on Nuclear Energy, plus site visits to Tomioka.
- From interviews by FoE Japan in February 2018 and February 2019.
- A counsellor of the government’s local response headquarters said, “This was a briefing to explain, not a consultation” (meeting with Cabinet Office and City of Minamisoma, April 16, 2014). This was made public through an information disclosure request to the Minamisoma municipal government by lawyers working on a group action suit against withdrawal of evacuation order under 20 mS/v in Minamisoma.