The nuclear exodus
It can be said that the decline of the nuclear industry became more pronounced after TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011. Many nuclear reactors currently being planned and under construction have been significantly delayed due to soaring costs and additional safety measures.
As of January 2019, there were 453 nuclear power reactors worldwide and 55 under construction.1 The ratio of nuclear to total electricity generation has been in a long-term steady decline, from the peak of 17.5% in 1996 to 10.3% in 2017.2
New photovoltaic installations in 2017 (approx. 100 GW) increased by 33% over 2016. In addition, approx. 52 GW of wind power was newly installed worldwide in 2017, for a total of approx. 539 GW, an increase of approximately 11% over 2016.3 The global offshore wind market grew by 30%.
Fig. 1. Total global installed capacity of solar, wind and nuclear
Source: Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Meanwhile, nuclear reactors around the world are aging. Excluding nuclear power reactors under a long-term shutdown, the average number operation of the 413 operable nuclear reactors around the world is about 30 years. This includes 81 that are already over 40 years old.4
Fig. 2. New reactors startups (top) and shutdowns (bottom)
Source: Mycle Schneider et al., “World Nuclear Industry Report (WNSR) 2016”
In response to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, Japan has set the operating period of the nuclear plants at 40 years in principle, but the operating life of nuclear plants differs from country to country. In the United States, the operating life in principle is 40 years, but most are allowed an extension of 20 years. However, even with extensions approved, decisions have been made to decommission several nuclear plants (e.g., Diablo Canyon, Vermont Yankee, and Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station) because of cost and safety concerns.
In Europe, in countries including Austria and Italy, nuclear power has been rejected as a result of public referendums. The governments in some countries such as Germany have adopted a national policy of denuclearization. Meanwhile, the nuclear power market is said to be active in Asia, but conversely, nuclear has been under pressure with construction delays and cancellations, and the movement toward nuclear-free policies.
In November 2016, Vietnam cancelled plans to construct nuclear plans, and in January 2017, Taiwan passed a law to abandon nuclear power. South Korea decided on a policy of phasing out nuclear power under the leadership of President Moon Jae-in. Indonesia has frozen nuclear power projects and will not advance any until 2050 at the earliest. Both Thailand and Malaysia have postponed nuclear projects. Singapore eliminated nuclear from its energy options in 2012. China had plans to build 58 GW of nuclear capacity by 2020, and 21 reactors are under construction, which accounts for a third of newly nuclear plant construction worldwide. But half of them are behind schedule.5
- IAEA PRIS accessed 5-Feb-2019. Among units under construction, 33 are delayed. World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018, Schneider et. al.
- Ibid.
- REN21 Renewables Global Status Report 2018 (translated by Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies). https://www.isep.or.jp/archives/library/category/renewables-global-status-report
- World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018, Schneider et. al.
- The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists “Global Nuclear Power Database” (accessed 9-Feb-2018) https://thebulletin.org/global-nuclear-power-database